A study by the car parts marketplace Ovoko revealed a list of ten petrol and diesel car models in the UK that are on track to go “extinct” first. According to the research, which analysed vehicle registration data to project when these models would hit near-zero numbers, the Hyundai Coupe tops the list and is set to disappear by the 28th of August, 2026.
Ovoko’s experts compiled the list using YouGov’s data on the most popular car models and assessed how these vehicle registrations have declined. By calculating the rate of decrease from their peak registrations, the researchers could estimate the extinction dates for each model. Extinction was defined as the point when a car’s registrations fall below 15% of their peak numbers.
Top Ten Cars Facing Extinction
- Hyundai Coupe – 28th of August, 2026
Leading the extinction race, the Hyundai Coupe is set to vanish from UK roads in under two years. Once a popular model, it is in rapid decline and will soon see its registrations drop to nearly zero.
- Renault Megane – 7th of July, 2029
In second place is the Renault Megane, with its extinction date projected to be in mid-2029. With just over four years remaining, the Megane is quickly falling out of favour.
- Ford Mondeo – 24th of May, 2033
Once ubiquitous on British roads, the Ford Mondeo is now expected to become nearly extinct by 2033. This gives it just over eight years before it too faces obsolescence.
- Renault Scenic – 13th of January, 2034
Another Renault model, the Scenic, will see its registrations dwindle to almost nothing by early 2034, leaving it with approximately nine years before it fades from the market.
- Ford Ka – 18th of February, 2035
The Ford Ka is predicted to disappear by early 2035, with just over a decade remaining before it becomes a rarity on UK roads.
- Toyota Avensis – 19th of August, 2037
The Toyota Avensis, once a reliable family car, is set to become nearly extinct by 2037, marking the end of its era with around 12 years left.
- Audi A2 – 28th of February, 2046
In seventh place is the Audi A2, which has just over two decades left before its registrations reach near-zero levels, with extinction expected in early 2046.
- Kia Carens – 10th of January, 2049
The Kia Carens is predicted to face extinction in 2049, leaving this model with around 24 years before it disappears from UK roads.
- Mazda 6 – 18th of April, 2049
The Mazda 6 is closely following the Kia Carens, with a projected extinction date in April 2049. This gives it about 24 years before it sees almost no registrations.
- Jeep Cherokee – 3rd of June, 2050
Rounding out the top ten, the Jeep Cherokee will have its registrations drop to critical levels by mid-2050, leaving it with just over 25 years of life remaining.
Vytas Palovis, Ovoko’s Vice President of Growth, said:
“Petrol and diesel car models are facing a swift decline as the automotive industry shifts towards electric vehicles. With increasing regulatory pressures, stricter emissions standards, and growing consumer demand for eco-friendly options, many traditional fuel-powered cars are likely to see a critical drop in registrations in the coming years and some models may become extinct altogether.
“Many of these models have become icons, representing decades of automotive design, engineering milestones, and a sense of nostalgia that can’t be replaced by modern alternatives. It is bittersweet to witness the gradual extinction of cars that have left such a lasting imprint on driving culture.”
The study’s methodology involved calculating the decline of each car model based on its registration data from Q1 2009 to Q1 2024, as gathered from the UK Government. The “extinction” of a model was defined as the point when registrations dropped to 15% of their peak.
The data was split between cars that were “in decline” and those that were still rising in popularity. For those in decline, researchers calculated how long it would take for their registrations to fall to 15% of their peak using the geometric mean of the quarterly decline rates. This gave a projected date of extinction for each model. Electric cars were excluded from the analysis, as the focus was solely on petrol and diesel models.
As the automotive world continues to evolve, many of the cars that have been fixtures on UK roads for decades are approaching their final days. The study provides a glimpse into the future of vehicle registrations and highlights the rapid pace of change in the industry.
Source birminghammail.co.uk