Softening the EU’s 2035 combustion engine ban to a 90% CO₂ cut means ICE and hybrid cars will stay in production longer, extending a mixed ELV stream into the 2040s. For UK ATFs, that means sustained demand for traditional depollution and parts recovery, alongside steadily rising EV and battery-handling requirements.
The EU’s planned outright ban on new petrol and diesel cars from 2035 is expected to be watered down, extending the future role of internal combustion and hybrid vehicles in Europe. While the UK is outside the EU, any change in European regulation will still shape manufacturer strategies, imports and ultimately the mix of ELVs arriving at UK ATFs.
From full ban to 90% emissions cut
Under the original deal agreed two years ago, all new cars sold in the EU from 2035 had to be zero CO₂ emissions, effectively ending new sales of both pure combustion and hybrid vehicles.
That position is now set to shift. Manfred Weber, MEP and president of the European People’s Party group, told Germany’s Bild newspaper that the 2035 deadline would be softened:
“The technology ban on combustion engines is off the table. All engines currently manufactured in Germany can therefore continue to be produced and sold.”
Instead of a 100% CO₂ reduction requirement for manufacturers’ fleets from 2035, Weber said a 90% reduction will be proposed. This would leave room for a limited share of combustion-based vehicles, most likely plug-in hybrids.
A European Commission spokesperson, Paula Pinho, said the 2035 deadline was “still being discussed”, adding that Commission president Ursula von der Leyen had acknowledged a clear demand for “more flexibility on the CO₂ targets”.
Politics, industry pressure and Chinese competition
The move follows lobbying from the German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, the Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, and much of the car industry to keep hybrids on sale after 2035, arguing manufacturers need more time to transition to EVs. They are likely to hail the shift as a pragmatic step that protects jobs and competitiveness.
Weber said the rule change would be an important signal “to the entire automotive industry and secures tens of thousands of industrial jobs”.
However, the change is opposed by environmental groups, who say it would amount to “gutting” the EU’s Green Deal, and by some manufacturers such as Volvo and Polestar, who argue that delaying the full phase-out of combustion engines hands an advantage to Chinese EV makers.
Alongside softening the 2035 rule, the EU is expected to propose new incentives for small, “made in Europe” EVs, inspired by Japan’s kei car model, to counter the growing presence of Chinese electric cars.
Lessons from Norway on EV adoption
Norway remains the benchmark for rapid EV uptake. Strong incentives, including VAT and purchase tax exemptions and around 50% reductions in road tolls, have driven EVs to more than 90% of new car sales in 2025, with almost 30% of all cars on the road now electric.
By contrast, Italy’s EV share was around 12% of the market as of November, reflecting slower adoption where incentives and charging infrastructure lag behind.
What this means for UK ATFs
For UK ATFs and vehicle recyclers, the practical takeaways are:
- Longer life for combustion and hybrids: A 90% target suggests a more gradual decline in ICE and hybrid production, meaning a mixed ELV stream well into the 2040s.
- Slower but steady EV growth: EV and high-voltage battery volumes will continue to rise, but alongside strong flows of ICE and hybrid ELVs.
- Changing vehicle mix: A push for smaller European EVs and continued imports of Chinese EVs will diversify brands, designs and battery types arriving at UK sites.
- Need for flexible operations: ATFs will need to maintain efficient ICE and hybrid depollution and dismantling while steadily building EV and battery-handling capacity, training and safe storage.
In short, the transition to electrification remains, but the EU’s expected change points to a longer, more managed glide path rather than a hard stop, giving UK recyclers more time to adapt, but also extending the period of mixed-technology complexity.
Source www.theguardian.com
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